EUR/USD...1.3653....Downtrend

Sun, Sep 11 2011, 11:45 GMT

 

 

 

 

EURUSD: 1.3653

Short-Term Trend: downtrend

Outlook: Approximately two weeks ago I turned bearish on EUR/USD when it failed at the 1.4530/40 level ( I was bullish before that but this failure made me bearish). Last week EUR declined sharply and strongly justified my bearish position. As said before, the most likely downside target is seen at 1.3520. Of course further downside potential is possible considering the strong downtrend on the daily chart now. So, the short side remains favored here as long as the prices stay below 1.4045/1.4100 area. But considering the huge potential profits one may already have, they also can consider taking profits here.
On the upside, only a move abv 1.4045/1.4100 will indicate the current decline has ended...

Strategy: Trading from short side is still favored but considering the huge hypothetical profits from 1.4400+ area, one can also take profits here. 

Technical Summary for Majors 6/9/2011

EUR/USD

Negative sentiment continues to drive pair lower, with overnight’s break below 1.4056, 05 Aug higher low and key short-term support, now focusing 1.4013, 200 day MA / 18 July low. Break here to signal a break below med-term range from early June and look for possible full retracement of 1.3836/1.4548 bull phase. However, overextended near-term studies see scope for corrective action, with 1.4100/ offering initial resistance, ahead of 1.4170/1.4200 zone, which is expected to cap.

Res: 1.4100, 1.4150, 1.4169, 1.4200
Sup: 1.4037, 1.4013, 1.4000, 1.3950

GBP/USD

Near-term price action enters consolidative phase after yesterday’s break below strong support zone at 1.6110, 200 day MA / 11 Aug higher low / Fib 61.8%, with sustained break lower to confirm broader picture bears and expose 1.6000 zone, 18 July low, next. Corrective attempt on oversold near-term conditions faces strong barrier at 1.6180 zone, yesterday’s high / 20 day MA, with reversal below here required to maintain bears. Otherwise, clearance of 1.6180/1.6200, would risk stronger correction and open 1.6250.

Res: 1.6184, 1.6207, 1.6251, 1.6265
Sup: 1.6065, 1.6040, 1.6000, 1.5970

USD/JPY

Remains in a directionless, narrow range trade in past one month. Near-term indicators are still flat and lacking direction, with similar configuration on the wider picture outlook. The recent price action is stuck in a narrowing range, currently between 76.40 and 77.00 levels, with break of either side to possibly signal further movements.

Res: 76.84, 76.95, 77.00, 77.25
Sup: 76.68, 76.51, 76.41, 76.30

USD/CHF

Maintains near-term positive structure off 0.7710, 02 Sep low, where pullback from 0.8239 found temporary support. Break above 0.7911, yesterday’s high / Fib 38.2%, holds near-term bulls in play, with regain of 0.8000/35 needed to confirm higher low and open way for upside extension towards 0.8086/0.8120. Only loss of 0.7840/20 would weaken the near-term tone.

Res :0.7945, 0.7959, 0.7993, 0.8023
Sup: 0.7900, 0.7859, 0.7837, 0.7820

EURUSD stays in the range.

The tepid NFP report (zero jobs), has the EURUSD confused as to directional bias. The weaker number sent the pair lower initially on the weak is bad for everyone and especially EURO, but are now seeing a move back to the the highs on lower dollar across the board thought. The price has moved to the high for the day at the 1.4287 level and backed off.  On the downside, the initial fall fell to the underside of the channel trendline at the 1.4234 level (low reached 1.4328) and rebounded. These are the extremes to eye now.  The midpoint of the low to high range post the report comes in at 1.4256.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4247.  This is support now.

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us news friday 2/9/2011

The U.S. dollar has moved accidentally during trading yesterday, after a mixed performance of the global economic data. In general, the psychological state of dealers at the moment are different levels of risk for this week in preparation for the expected employment data on Friday, with expectations that there would register a negative reading to a large extent.
It is worth mentioning that the economic data due to be issued this week were the cause in the direction of a lot of customers about safe-haven currencies with higher rates of risk and have a little pessimism. Towards the end of this week, the eyes of the dealers now moving toward the expected economic data on Friday, next on employment rates and non-agricultural sector, which will have a significant impact on the rates of risk in the market.
On the other hand it is today expected economic data from many many countries around the world. Therefore, it is expected to rise substantially frequency rates in the market with a state of anticipation of the dealers on Friday's data on employment rates without the U.S. agricultural sector. In general, it is after the data release yesterday about the ADP report rates of employment other than the agricultural sector for the private sector, which came to a high degree of negative, the outlook now suggests that it is not expected to improve read rates of employment on Friday, which is expected to be the cause of the continued the U.S. dollar on the rise due to pessimism about the global economy dealers coming period.

Forex Technical Analysis on Majors 1/9/2011 at 10:30 am

EUR/USD

As we are approaching the beginning of September, heavier volumes are executed on the market an the pair will try to escape from last month's broad range below 1.4580. Trend dynamics is expected to emerge this week, and the focus will be set at 1.4690 and 1.4940 resistance areas.
 
The downtrend from 1.4550 is intact, targeting 1.4260 reversal area. Initial intraday resistance is projected at 1.4330, followed by the crucial area at 1.4390. 

                

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USD/JPY

The overall downtrend continues to be intact, aiming at new historical lows below 75.95. Technical indicators are still descending and crucial resistance on the daily frame is 80.20.

Although yesterday's minor downtrend bottomed earlier than anticipated, the rise that followed performed a precise test of 77.20 resistance. Current outlook is bearish for 76.20 before one more upswing towards 77.90. On the mid frames the outlook remains neutral

 

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GBP/USD

 

The pair is in an uptrend from 1.4222 low, targeting 1.70+ resistance area. Technical indicators are rising and trading is situated above the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.6209 and 1.6098.

The bias continues to be negative for a break through 1.6206 low, towards 1.6110 reversal area. Initial resistance is projected at 1.6259 and crucial on the upside is 1.6335. 

 

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Technical Summary for Majors 31/8/2011

EUR/USD

Fresh gains off yesterday’s low at 1.4383 remain capped at 1.4465 for now, with near-term price action entrenched within narrow range. Holding above 1.4400 zone would keep hopes of fresh gains alive, however, clearance of initial barrier at 1.4465 is required to confirm and expose 1.4490/1.4532 next, while break below 1.4483 would risk test of channel support at 1.4357 instead.

Res: 1.4465, 1.4490, 1.4532, 1.4550
Sup: 1.4416, 1.4383, 1.4350, 1.4328

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s renewed attempt below main bull trendline, drawn off 1.5779 low and daily 90 day MA, keeps the short-term focus at the downside, as temporary support was found at 1.6254. Recovery attempt remains capped by trendline and 20 day MA on 4-hour chart, currently at 1.6345. Loss of 1.6254 to turn focus to key near-term support at 1.6207, 26 Aug low, also near Fib 61.8% retracement of 1.5779/1.6617 ascend.

Res: 1.6338, 1.6370, 1.6394, 1.6418 

Sup: 1.6255, 1.6222, 1.6207, 1.6165

USD/JPY

Remains in sideways trading mode, with near-term negative tone dominating as long as 77.00 zone caps the upside. Overnight’s extension towards 76.45 range floor, and MA’s above the price, keep the downside favored for now. However, break below 76.00 is required to trigger fresh phase lower, while upside clearance of range ceiling at 77.00/26 improves.

Res: 76.75, 76.88, 76.97, 77.06
Sup: 76.44, 76.30, 76.00, 75.93

USD/CHF

Corrects the latest rally that peaked at 0.8239 on 29 Aug, as the pair broke below initial support at 0.8120, extending losses to the levels below 0.8000. This weakens the near-term tone and opens way for possible further retracement of 0.7067/0.8239 ascend, however, wider picture bull-trend off 0.7067 remains in play while 0.7790, Fib 38.2% stays intact.

Res: 0.8055, 0.8073, 0.8120, 0.8150
Sup: 0.7992, 0.7959, 0.7926, 0.7890

 

forex recommondations ( EUR/USD )

Euro come under pressure past European session, having been hit but worse than expected economic data, and falling towards 1.4384, recovering some ground mid American session after FOMC Minutes forced dollar to gave back ground. Hourly chart shows the bearish tone persist in the pair capped by a strongly bearish 20 SMA and with indicators below their midlines, while 4 hours chart has the same tone. Only a recovery above 1.4480 may change the short term bias, and favor a recovery back towards the 1.4530 price zone.

Support levels: 1.4410 1.4380 1.4350 

Resistance levels: 1.4475 1.4500 1.4530